Special Alert: War In Ukraine

Photo : Ukraine's Economy Ministry

War in Ukraine: Day 561

War in Ukraine: Day 561
Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 07 September, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, emphasizing Israel’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and its assistance to Ukraine’s citizens fleeing Russia’s aggression. They discussed ways Israel could further aid Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. Zelenskyy raised concerns about Ukraine’s citizens being denied entry into Israel under the visa-free regime. Additionally, they addressed security measures for the expected influx of Hasidic pilgrimage to Uman during Rosh Hashanah, with the possibility of deploying additional Israeli police forces to ensure safety. 

On 07 September, Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s Economy Minister, during the Three Seas Initiative summit, said that Ukraine has commenced grain exports through Croatian ports. Both countries discussed expanding this transport corridor. Croatia offered to aid Ukraine in demining and investigating Russia’s war crimes, drawing on its experience and proposed assistance in establishing necessary institutions. 

On 07 September, Zelenskyy introduced Rustem Umerov, the newly appointed Minister of Defence, to the Ministry’s leadership, emphasizing the importance of its role in coordinating the defence sector. Zelenskyy called for immediate reforms, including digitization, and prioritized the well-being of Ukraine’s soldiers. Umerov pledged zero tolerance for corruption, digitalization, and harmonizing procurement procedures with NATO standards. 

On 07 September, Kurt Volker, former US ambassador to NATO, during the Yalta Security Conference in Kyiv, urged investors to believe in Ukraine’s future success. He dispelled misconceptions about Ukraine’s counteroffensive, emphasizing that regaining territory takes time. Volker also called for increased US military aid to Ukraine and quicker weapons delivery, suggesting a larger aid package to avoid politicization before the US presidential elections. He noted that military aid to Ukraine is not in cash, reducing corruption risks.

On 07 September, according to Ukrainska Pravda, Lloyd’s of London was in discussions with the UN regarding insurance coverage for Ukraine’s grain shipments if a new Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement is established. CEO John Neal confirmed their willingness to provide insurance if a corridor is re-operated, but it may require a different structure. Insurance is critical for Ukraine’s cargo, and without UN intervention, Lloyd’s wouldn’t endorse it. Losses from the war in Ukraine, after reinsurance, are estimated at USD two billion by Lloyd’s. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 07 September, according to TASS, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) disrupted an organized criminal group involved in illegally exporting components for military aircraft and helicopters, some intended for Ukraine’s military. The group, comprising Ukraine’s and Central Asian citizens operating in Russia, acquired and repaired these components for unauthorized export to Western European countries. Authorities confiscated over 100 components, USD 117,000, and 59,000 euros. Charges have been filed against the detainees for smuggling military equipment, and they are in custody pending trial in Moscow.

On 07 September, Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, declared that the US plan to employ confiscated funds from sanctioned Russia’s businessmen to assist Ukraine is unlawful and will face legal challenges. He noted that Russia’s businessmen have contested similar actions in other countries, resulting in court rulings deeming them illegal.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 07 September, Antony J. Blinken, US Secretary of State, held a conversation with Luminita Odobescu, Romania’s Foreign Minister. They discussed Romania’s investigation into drone debris found near the Ukraine border and emphasized cooperation for airspace security, including the deployment of additional US F-16 fighter jets to support NATO’s air policing mission in Romania. 

On 07 September, the Pentagon unveiled a new USD 600 million aid package for Ukraine, part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, to fund long-term contracts for weapons systems. This includes support for air defence systems, artillery ammunition, electronic warfare equipment, and mine-clearing gear.

On 07 September, according to Euronews, Emmanuel Macron, France’s President, stated that Russia's flag should not be displayed at the 2024 Paris Olympics due to Russia’s involvement in war crimes during the Ukraine’s conflict. While he believes there is a consensus on this issue, he acknowledges that the final decision lies with the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and Thomas Bach, IOC’s President. Macron emphasizes the need to distinguish between athletes who support the regime and those who are victims.

References
President of Ukraine had a phone call with the Prime Minister of Israel,” President of Ukraine, 07 September 2023
Martin Fornusek, “Minister: Croatian ports start exporting Ukrainian grain,” The Kyiv Independent, 07 September 2023
President introduces new Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov,” President of Ukraine, 07 September 2023
Alexander Query, “Larger US military package required, says former special representative for Ukraine,” The Kyiv Independent, 07 September 2023
Lloyd's insurance market and UN negotiate insurance for Ukrainian grain transportation,” Ukrainska Pravda, 07 September 2023
Russia's FSB foils illegal export of components for military aircraft to West, Ukraine,” TASS, 07 September 2023
Kremlin says U.S. plan to give Russian funds to Ukraine is illegal,” Zawya, 07 September 2023
Secretary Blinken’s Call with Romanian Foreign Minister Odobescu,” US Department of State, 07 September 2023
Lolita C. Baldor, “US announces new $600 million aid package for Ukraine to boost counteroffensive,” Associated Press, 07 September 2023
Jorge Liboriero and Maria Psara, “'We need to be with Ukraine not only in good times but also in bad times,' says Jens Stoltenberg,” Euronews, 07 September 2023
Paris 2024: The Russian flag 'cannot be' at the Olympics, Macron says,” Euronews, 07 September 2023


In Brief
Genesy Balasingam 

BELGIUM
Pipigate scandal
On 07 September, Vincent Van Quickenborne, Belgium’s Justice Minister, testified in parliament after CCTV footage showed guests at his birthday party urinating on an empty police van. He also acknowledged the gravity of the situation and apologised for the resulting embarrassment, even though he was unaware of what they had done. The incident has enraged opposition lawmakers and police unions. The van is understood to be the property of cops assigned to Van Quickenborne's security detail. Quickenborne refuted this allegation and then released footage from his own personal security camera, which he claimed showed him leading a friend out of his Kortrijk home hours after the accused had departed. Opposition politicians chastised him and questioned his version of events. Alexander de Croo, Belgian Prime Minister was also present at the birthday party, and he confirmed that he saw nothing. (Sam Hancock, “Vincent Van Quickenborne: Belgian justice minister apologises for 'Pipigate' scandal,” BBC, 07 September 2023)

FINLAND
Finland’s youngest Prime Minister quits politics
On 07 September, Sanna Marin, former Finland’s Prime Minister, announced her resignation from Finnish politics. She is one of Europe’s youngest leaders and a vocal supporter of Ukraine. She announced that she would be joining a London-based non-profit organization. Marin, who was 37 at the time of her election in 2019, headed a five-party center-left governing coalition until April of this year. She was lauded for her Cabinet’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic and her loud support for Ukraine. Her vocal support and Russian criticism raised her international profile. Marin quoted: “I’m excited to take on a new role. I also believe it can benefit the entire country of Finland.” (“Former Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin, who was one of Europe’s youngest leaders, quits politics,” Associated Press, 07 September 2023)

Government announces new deals to contribute in clean energy
On 07 September, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment, and Ministry of the Environment issued a statement announcing the variety of measures that the government is seeking to take to accelerate the energy transition. The goal is to attract investments that cut emissions and position Finland as a leader in clean energy and a positive climate footprint. Access to and the cost of clean electricity, as well as expedited permission procedures and efficient transmission connections, are critical criteria for clean energy projects. The government expressed its desire to increase domestic electricity generation, which is required for the expansion of the clean industry, and to encourage investments in solar and wind power and expand nuclear power. An ambitious objective for offshore wind power capacity will be set by 2035, providing Finland with a competitive advantage over other Baltic Sea countries. One of the organization’s top priorities is emission reductions and capturing of carbon in industry and energy production. The government will keep a continual overview of the situation and an assessment of activities that are adequate to satisfy Finland’s emission reduction targets and responsibilities. (“Minister Mykkänen: Excellent opportunities for Finland to become major player in clean energy,” Finnish Government, 07 September 2023)

POLAND
Opposition accuses the government of migrants and corruption
On 07 September, Poland’s major opposition leader accused the conservative government of hypocrisy for reportedly allowing foreign workers despite anti-migrant rhetoric and the construction of a new border wall. Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Coalition, stated that the administration admitted approximately 130,000 Muslim migrants last year despite anti-migrant rhetoric aimed primarily at non-Christians in order to ease limitations and corruption from foreign labor organizations. Allegations that the administration has opened the door to Middle Eastern migrants are linked to the unexpected dismissal of Piotr Wawrzyk, Deputy Foreign Minister. According to media sources, Wawrzyk was fired as the state Anti-Corruption Office was conducting an inspection of the Foreign Ministry, namely the consular and visa department he oversaw. Donald Tusk, former Prime Minister and former senior EU official stated the government’s actions contradicted its formal policy declarations. (Monika Scislowska, “Poland’s opposition accuses the government of allowing large numbers of migrants, corruption,” Associated Press, 07 September 2023)

Bank interest rates drop amidst high inflation
On 07 September, Euronews reported that Adam Glapinski, President of National Bank of Poland stated that despite inflation, the country's big interest rate drop is appropriate since prices are stabilising. His comment surfaced following the bank’s monetary council announcement of a 75-basis-point cut in interest rates. Critics of Poland’s populist authorities accused Glapinski and members of the central bank’s monetary policy council of acting to support the ruling party ahead of parliamentary elections next month, with a significant cut considered as premature by economists. The bank reduced its reference rate from 6.75 per cent to six per cent as well as other interest rates. The zloty plummeted versus the dollar and euro, extending its dramatic decline since the interest rate cuts were announced. The reduction will provide some comfort to individuals with mortgages, but they will also raise the risk of additional inflation. (Daniel Bellamy, “Poland slashes interest rates, causing zloty to slide against dollar,” Euronews, 07 September 2023)

THE UK
Rejoins the Horizon Europe and also the Copernicus Earth satellite program
On 07 September, Deutsche Welle reported that the UK will rejoin Horizon Europe, the EU’s main science research initiative, as part of a new deal. Horizon Europe has an annual budget of 95.5 billion pounds and it funds scientific research in sectors ranging from terminal diseases to climate technologies to food and energy security. Following the negotiations ended by Rishi Sunak, British Prime Minister and Ursula von der Leyen, EU Commission President, the UK will return to Horizon and also to the EU’s monitoring satellite program Copernicus Earth. Horizon will provide unique chances for UK companies and academic institutions to lead global efforts to develop new technology and research projects in areas including areas from health to artificial intelligence. The UK will contribute approximately three billion pounds to Horizon and Copernicus beginning in January 2024. The new agreement includes an underperformance clause, which permits the UK to be compensated should UK scientists receive significantly less money than the UK puts into the program. (“UK to return to EU science research program Horizon Europe,” Deutsche Welle, 07 September 2023)

REGIONAL
Talks on the outlook of the Reykjavik Summit 
On 07 September, Marija Pejinovi Buri, Secretary General of the Council of Europe, visited Switzerland to meet with Alain Berset, President of the Swiss Confederation, to discuss the Council of Europe’s outlook in the aftermath of the Reykjavik Summit and the impact of the war in Ukraine. The president handed over Switzerland's ratification instrument for Convention 108+, which strengthens data protection. The summit encouraged the creation of a record to document the harm caused by Russia's aggression against Ukraine, which would help in gathering evidence of Russia's crimes. The aim of Kosovo to join the Council of Europe was also discussed. The country's residents, including members of the Serb minority and other communities, would get access to the European Court of Human Rights. The Convention has evolved into an important reference point for European legislative and judicial institutions. The amending protocol (Convention 108+) is intended to address the issues posed by modern information and communication technologies and it will enter into force only after ratification by 38 States Parties. (“President Berset receives Council of Europe secretary general: talks on outlook following Reykjavík summit,” The Federal Council, 07 September 2023)

Iceland and Luxembourg to strengthen partnership
On 07 September, Xavier Bettel, Luxembourg’s Prime Minister, and Katrin Jakobsdottir, Iceland’s Prime Minister, held a discussion about further developing bilateral relations, the tight linkages within the European Economic Area, international security issues such as continued support for Ukraine, and the need for stronger climate action. Luxembourg and Iceland, as natural partners, share a common goal of constructing a stronger, safer, greener, more competitive, and affluent Europe based on the fundamental values of human rights, democracy, and the rule of law. The Prime Ministers expressed their worry about the global backlash against gender equality and minority rights, including those of LGBTI people, and emphasised the importance of reinforcing SDGs implementation to achieve gender equality. During the conference, it was resolved to explore stronger cooperation in the education and cultural sectors and explored strategies to improve Iceland-Luxembourg people-to-people communication. (“Joint press release on the occasion of the visit of the Prime minister of Iceland to Luxembourg,” The Luxembourg Government, 07 September 2023)

New transatlantic agreement challenges in EU court
On 07 September, Philippe Latombe, a member of parliament, announced that he is challenging a new transatlantic agreement allowing companies to freely transfer data between the EU and the US before the EU’s General Court, potentially opening the door to years of legal wrangling. After the EU’s top court ruled down its predecessor, known as Privacy Shield, in 2020, Brussels and Washington rubber-stamped a deal known as the EU-US Data Privacy Framework in July. The EU Court of Justice had invalidated the plan because of concerns that US spy agencies could readily snoop on European citizens. According to Latombe, he filed two challenges which included immediate stop of the agreement and the text’s content. The Data Privacy Framework was only notified to EU countries in English and was not published in the EU's Official Journal thus violating procedural norms. (Laura Kayali, “French lawmaker challenges transatlantic data deal before EU court,” Politico, 07 September 2023)

Armenia- Azerbaijan border dispute
On 07 September, Armenia announced that its neighbouring rival Azerbaijan is mobilising troops along their shared border. Armenia and Azerbaijan recently waged a war in 2020 over Nagorno-Karabakh, a landlocked ethnic Armenian region. A cease-fire that year allowed Azerbaijan to reclaim land in the region, while Russia sent peacekeepers to the conflict zone. Over the last few days, Azerbaijan has massed forces along the line of contact with Nagorno-Karabakh and on the border with Armenia. Azerbaijan is showing its intent to launch a new military provocation against Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry stated that Armenia must abandon territorial claims to Azerbaijan, stop military-political provocations, and stop impeding the peace process. Armenia’s security concerns over Azerbaijan come as the country wants greater defense relations with the United States. (“Armenia says Azerbaijan mobilizing troops in border regions,” Deutsche Welle, 07 September 2023)

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